AGP Executive Report

TAP Sale: Portugal is expected to name its preferred buyer for a 44.9% stake in TAP. Lufthansa is reportedly ahead of Air France-KLM, but the government has not confirmed a decision; the state would retain majority control. 2027 Budget: The draft budget proposes updated income-tax brackets and stronger social benefits, while tuition fees are set to rise again. It still needs parliamentary approval. EU Rules: Portugal joined 12 member states calling for a year focused on enforcing existing EU laws and cutting overlapping reporting and compliance burdens. Azores Base: Portugal is examining the legality of US use of Lajes Air Base, while the prime minister says the arrangements comply with Portuguese law. Cost of Living: Thousands protested over rising living costs and housing prices, adding pressure on the government to address affordability.

Political Accountability: Police identified Chega MP Rita Matias after she and another party MP entered a Coimbra university radio studio during a live debate, disrupting the broadcast. Matias says Chega was unfairly excluded from the discussion. Economic Outlook: The IMF raised its forecast for Portugal’s growth to 2.1% this year and 1.9% in 2027, but expects inflation to stay higher than the government predicts. Housing and Living Costs: Thousands have protested rising rents and living costs, pressing the government to respond to mounting household strain. US Base Debate: Portugal is investigating the legality of US use of Lajes Air Base in the Azores; the prime minister says the use complies with Portuguese law and has cautioned the judiciary against politicising the issue.

Lajes Air Base: Portugal is investigating whether US use of the Azores base is legal. The prime minister says it complies with Portuguese law and has cautioned the judiciary against politicising the issue. Infrastructure: Construction has begun on the high-speed rail line linking Lisbon and Porto, a major transport project for the country. Cost of Living: Thousands have protested over rising living costs and housing prices, adding pressure on the government to respond.

Rail Investment: Construction has begun on the first section of Portugal’s high-speed line between Porto and Oiã. The €2 billion, 71-kilometre project is part of a plan to cut Lisbon–Porto travel to 75 minutes and strengthen links with Spain. Azores Base Dispute: Prosecutors are investigating whether US use of Lajes Air Base complied with Portuguese law, following a Left Bloc complaint. Prime Minister Luís Montenegro has insisted the use was legal. Farm Support: Farmers are pressing the government for a €140 million package, saying surging energy and fertiliser costs leave them struggling to compete with Spanish producers. Storm Recovery: Portugal is set to receive €261.5 million from the EU Solidarity Fund for damage from winter storms, pending final approval. Defence Costs: Rising fuel prices have added more than €3 million to Navy and Air Force supply contracts, putting pressure on planned military operations.

5G Security: Portugal has extended restrictions on “high-risk” suppliers in its 5G networks, requiring operators to keep replacing sensitive equipment, including Huawei gear. Fuel Costs: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro called rising oil prices “senseless” and urged a swift end to the international tensions driving up costs for households and businesses. Housing and Living Costs: Thousands took to the streets in Portugal to protest rising housing prices and the cost of living, adding pressure on the government to respond. Azores Base: Montenegro said US use of the Azores air base complies with Portuguese law and warned the judiciary against becoming politicised. Defence and EU Budget: Portugal is weighing US F-35s against European alternatives, while President António José Seguro has stressed the case for European defence technology. Lisbon also faces tough EU budget talks as Germany and other net contributors reject the latest compromise. State Budget: The government is preparing to present its 2027 budget bill to parliament.

Cost of Living: Thousands marched in Lisbon, Porto and other cities against soaring housing costs, rising prices and wages they say no longer cover basic needs. Azores and Defence: The government says US use of the Azores air base complies with Portuguese law, while the prime minister has warned the judiciary against politicising the issue. Portugal is also weighing US F-35s against European alternatives to replace its F-16s, after Marco Rubio promoted the jets during his Lisbon visit. Budget Pressures: The government has submitted its 2027 State Budget to Parliament amid criticism of the ruling AD’s proposal. The Bank of Portugal chief has urged preparation for external shocks, while the finance minister has warned lawmakers against interfering with the budget.

Cost-of-Living Protests: Thousands marched in Lisbon and Porto on Saturday over unaffordable housing, rising living costs and wages they say do not cover basic needs. Demonstrations were also planned in Aveiro and Braga. Azores Base and Defence: The prime minister says US use of the Azores air base complies with Portuguese law and has cautioned the judiciary against politicising the issue. Meanwhile, Portugal is reconsidering US F-35 jets for its F-16 replacement, while President António José Seguro has argued for European defence technology. Budget and Public Services: Parliament is receiving the 2027 State Budget amid criticism of the government’s proposal. The Bank of Portugal’s governor urged the country to prepare for external shocks, while the finance minister warned MPs against meddling with the budget. The president has also called for mental health to become a national priority.

Mental Health: President António José Seguro urged Portugal to make mental healthcare a national priority, saying services must be easier to access in schools, workplaces and local communities. Azores Base Dispute: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro defended US use of Lajes Air Base, insisting Portugal had followed the law as prosecutors investigate a complaint from the Left Bloc. Defence Spending: During a Lisbon visit, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio promoted F-35s as Portugal weighs replacements for its F-16 fleet; Seguro has argued for European defence technology. Witness Protection: Portugal’s Justice Ministry reversed a move to remove Football Leaks whistleblower Rui Pinto from witness protection, citing procedural shortcomings in the original decision.

State Budget: The government is due to submit its 2027 budget bill to Parliament today. The Bank of Portugal chief has urged the country to prepare for external shocks, while the finance minister warned MPs against meddling with the budget. Defence and US ties: During Marco Rubio’s Lisbon visit, Prime Minister Luís Montenegro cautioned the judiciary against politicising US use of a Portuguese air base. Lisbon is seriously considering the US F-35, but is weighing alternatives; President António José Seguro has stressed the case for European defence technology. Ukraine diplomacy: Rubio warned in Lisbon that the war’s stalemate risks escalation. US, Ukrainian and European officials have since met in Miami to discuss security guarantees, energy resilience and Ukraine’s reconstruction and EU accession. International law: Portugal joined European criticism of US sanctions on the International Criminal Court, with the EU pledging to protect the court’s work. Rule of law: Portugal’s Justice Ministry restored Football Leaks founder Rui Pinto’s witness protection after finding he had not been properly notified of its planned termination or given a chance to challenge it. Guinea-Bissau: ECOWAS is urging consultations on a new election timetable after the country’s military authorities postponed December’s vote.

International Law: Portugal joined EU partners in condemning US sanctions on the International Criminal Court, which Washington says will take effect after a six-month grace period. US Military Access: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro defended the US use of Lajes Air Base during the Iran conflict and cautioned the judiciary against making political judgments as it investigates the government’s approval. Lisbon is also reconsidering the US F-35 fighter jet alongside European alternatives to replace its ageing F-16 fleet. Budget Politics: The government delivered its 2027 budget bill to Parliament, separating its passage from a controversial rental reform. The Bank of Portugal chief warned the country to prepare for external shocks.

State Budget: Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento has presented the 2027 budget, targeting a 0.1% surplus and public debt of 84.5% of GDP. He warned Parliament against unfunded changes as talks begin, while President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa welcomed a compromise between the government and the Socialists. US Ties and Defence: Visiting Lisbon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio called Portugal a key gateway for US technology and urged stronger NATO capabilities. Portugal is seriously considering the US F-35 to replace its ageing F-16s, but Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel says European options remain on the table and the decision will serve the national interest. Rubio also declined to comment on Portugal’s inquiry into US military use of Lajes Air Base. Economic Resilience: Bank of Portugal Governor Álvaro Santos Pereira urged the country to prepare for more frequent external shocks by keeping public finances in order and reducing debt. Sarmento said the budget position should help Portugal withstand a downturn.

2027 Budget: Finance Minister Joaquim Miranda Sarmento presented the budget proposal, targeting a 0.1% surplus and public debt of 84.5% of GDP. He urged Parliament not to add unfunded measures, warning that changes could weaken Portugal’s ability to weather external shocks, and singled out the PS and Chega as potential obstacles. US Ties and Defence: Visiting Secretary of State Marco Rubio praised Portugal as a key NATO ally and pitched the F-35 as a replacement for its ageing F-16s. Foreign Minister Paulo Rangel said the government is seriously weighing the US offer alongside other options and will decide in the national interest. Ukraine: Rangel called the US the only country currently able to broker a lasting peace, while Rubio described the war as a dangerous stalemate that could widen into a regional conflict. Separately, prosecutors are examining whether US operations linked to the Iran war at Lajes air base in the Azores were lawful.

US–Portugal Ties: Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Lisbon, calling Portugal a close ally and thanking its government for conditional access to Lajes Air Base during US operations in the Iran war. The visit puts the Azores base back in focus as Portugal investigates the legality of earlier US military use. Budget Deal: President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa welcomed a compromise between the government and the Socialist Party on the State Budget, easing a key political standoff. EU Influence: Prime Minister Luís Montenegro is pushing to keep António Costa and European Parliament President Roberta Metsola in their EU roles through 2029.

Immigration: Portugal’s government says the AIMA agency has nearly cleared a backlog of 445,000 residence applications, with about 5,000 still unresolved. The minister says the agency can now focus more on family reunification and other delayed cases. Budget Talks: The president welcomed a compromise between the government and Socialist Party, as the prime minister seeks to separate approval of the state budget from a disputed rental reform. Azores Base: Prosecutors are investigating the legality of US military use of Lajes Air Base during the Iran conflict, as Secretary of State Marco Rubio prepares to visit Lisbon. EU Funding: Lisbon’s leaders joined mayors from other European capitals in warning that cuts to the bloc’s next long-term budget could weaken support for cities. The EU has also proposed €489 million for storm recovery across Portugal, Spain, Italy and Malta.

Budget Deal: President António José Seguro welcomed a preliminary understanding that would let the minority government’s 2027 budget pass its first parliamentary vote with Socialist support, reducing its reliance on CHEGA. Key measures still need to be negotiated. Parliamentary Clash: CHEGA accused Speaker José Pedro Aguiar-Branco of blocking its proposed inquiry into former police chief Luís Neves. The Speaker wants no more than two inquiries running at once; CHEGA says it will seek an urgent debate. Lajes Base Probe: Portuguese prosecutors are examining whether the United States’ use of Lajes Air Base in the Azores during the Iran conflict was lawful, putting oversight of a key US military facility in the spotlight.

Portugal Football Fallout: Cristiano Ronaldo has finally laid out his version of the Portugal camp rupture with coach Jorge Jesus, saying Jesus “broke his word” over playing time and that Ronaldo will remain available for Portugal after any suspension ends, while also apologising for leaving camp and asking the federation to assess and punish his actions. EU Enlargement Rules: The European Commission is pushing tighter safeguards for future candidate countries, including possible voting-right limits for up to 15 years if values are breached, as it prepares for new accessions. Lisbon-Azores Aviation & Privatization: SATA Group says it’s prioritising stability as SATA Internacional-Azores Airlines moves through its restructuring and privatization process, with fleet and connectivity plans for the islands. International Diplomacy: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio used a NATO tour stop in Iceland to stress Arctic security cooperation and insist Washington won’t act without Reykjavik’s consent. World Cup Governance Shock: FIFA faces renewed scrutiny after reports it allowed an ineligible DR Congo goalkeeper in a key qualifier, adding to pressure on Gianni Infantino.